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23 octobre 2018

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Estimer les conflits



Guerres civiles

Guerres ethniques

Guerres entre États

Guerres d'indépendance

Violences civiles

Violences ethniques

Violences entre États

Zone en construction - Tableau construit sur la base des données de Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr (Directeur: Minorities at Risk program at the University of Maryland at College Park).

PériodePaysNombre*Précisions

2004 - 2005 Yémen 1 000 Violence civile (al-Huthi in Sadaa)
2004 - 2005 Haïti 2 000 Renversement du Président Aristide.
2003 - 2003 Thaïlande 2 500 Campagne anti-drogue
2003 - 2005 Arabie Saoudite 700 Violences civiles: militants islamistes.
2002 - 2003 Congo 500 Violences civiles (militants Ninja)
2001 - 2003 Centrafricaine (rep) 1 000 Violences civiles (attaques des loyalistes Bozize)
2001 - 2005 Inde 1 500 Insurrection maoiste
2000 - 2001 Guinée 1 000 Parrot s Beak clashes
2000 - 2003 Liberia 1 000 Violences civiles (LURD Libériens Unis pour la Réconciliation et la Démocratie - guérillas)
1999 - 1999 Indonésie 3 000 Violences ethniques (Indépendance du Timor oriental)
1998 - 1998 Lesotho 1 000 Violences civiles (élections)
1998 - 1998 Indonésie 2 000 Guerre civile (renversement de Suharto)
1997 - 1999 Albanie 2 000 Violences civiles (Pyramides)
1992 - 1999 Égypte 2 000 Violence civile menée par des militants islamistes.
1991 - 1991 Burundi 1 000 Violence civile
1991 - 1991 Haïti non-disponible Violence civile (renversement du président Aristide)
1989 - 1989 Chine 2 000 Violence civile: événements de la place Tian-An-Man. Pour en savoir plus!
1989 - 1989 Roumanie 1 000 Violence civile
1988 - 1988 Myanmar 2 000 Violences civiles: protestations étudiantes contre le gouvernement. Répression.
1987 - 1987 Chili 3 000 Violence civile
1984 - 1984 Cameroun 750 Conflits dans l'armée
1984 - 2005 Colombie 50 000 Violence civile: mouvement insurectionnel et mouvement mené par les cartels colombiens de la drogue. Répression par l'armée puis reddition de ces cartels quasi disparus en 1995.
1983 - 1983 Inde 3 000 Violence civile (lors des élections législatives en Assam) . Mouvement séparatiste.
1983 - 1984 Chine 5 000 Repression de dissidents
1982 - 1997 Pérou 30 000 Violence civile entre la guérillera du Sentirer Lumineux (Sendero Luminoso) de gauche (maoiste, terrorisme) et le gouvernement. Selon certaines sources: 26 000 morts, 4 000 disparus et 50 000 orphelins (chiffres de 2002).
1982 - 2002 Irak 350 000 Répression du gouvernement contre les opposants politiques. Les estimations demeurent cependant imprécises. L'évaluation de 350 000 est de Milton Leitenberg, «Deaths in Wars and Conflicts in the 20th Century».
1981 - 1981 Gambie 650 SRLP rebellion
1980 - 1980 Brésil 1 000 Repression de dissidents menée par des Escadrons de la mort (Death squads) avec le soutien tacite de forces policières.
1980 - 1980 Jamaïque 1 000 Violence civile lors des élections
1979 - 1980 Corée du Sud 1 000 Émeutes et répressions gouvernementales
1978 - 1978 Somalie 500 Conflits au sein de l'armée.
1976 - 1976 Soudan 1 000 Violences civiles (Islamic Charter Front)
1975 - 1975 Portugal non-disponible Violence civile
1975 - 1990 Laos 10 000 Violences civiles
1975 - 2005 Angola 3 500 Violences civiles.
1974 - 1974 Chypre null 5 000 Violence civile, invasion de l'armée turque, division de l'île en deux zones. Pour en savoir plus!
1974 - 1985 Turquie 8 000 Violence civile
1973 - 1973 Chili 5 000 Violence civile (L'armée renverse le gouvernement d'Allende) Pour en savoir plus!
1971 - 1971 Sri Lanka 10 000 Violences civiles. Maoistes contre le gouvernement.
1970 - 1970 Jordanie 10 000 Violence civile entre les Palestiniens et le gouvernement jordanien. Pour en savoir plus!
1970 - 1975 Oman 3 000 Violences civiles (Dhofar)
1969 - 1979 Guinée Équatoriale 50 000 Répression des dissidents.
1968 - 1968 France 3 000 Violences civiles: ensembles des émeutes ouvrières et étudiantes de l'année. Le chiffre de 3 000 de Marshall ne fait pas l'unanimité. D'autres sources avancent moins d'une centaine de personnes.
1968 - 1968 Tchèque (Rép) Slovaquie 1 000 Violences civiles: Printemps de Prague.
1968 - 1982 Inde 2 000 Repression des Naxalites, mouvement Naxal, favorable à des réformes agraires, y compris par des moyens radicaux: terrorisme. Certaines factions communistes-maoistes. Estimations des morts très variées: de quelques milliers à quelques dizaines de milliers.
1967 - 1967 Congo (rep. dem.) 800 Violence civile
1965 - 1965 Dominicaine (Rep) États-Unis 3 000 Violence civile entre des opposants politiques de gauche et de droite, division des forces armées. Intervention américaine. Pour en savoir plus!
1965 - 1965 Pérou non-disponible Violence civile
1965 - 1968 États-Unis 1 000 Violences civiles: mouvements des Afro-américains. Répression. Pour en savoir plus!
1964 - 1964 Guatemala non-disponible Violence civile
1964 - 1964 Zambie 1 000 Violence civile
1964 - 1964 Tanzanie non-disponible Violence civile
1964 - 1964 Brésil non-disponible Violence civile. Renversement du gouvernement par l'armée. Instauration d'un régime autoritaire. Pour en savoir plus!
1963 - 1963 Irak non-disponible Violence civile
1963 - 1963 Iran 1 000 Violence civile (réforme agraire)
1963 - 1968 Chypre 2 000 Violences civiles (Makarios)
1962 - 1963 Algérie 2 000 Violences civiles
1961 - 1961 Tunisie 1 000 Violences du colonisateur français.
1959 - 1959 Irak 2 000 Violence civile (tribu Shammar)
1958 - 1958 Liban 2 000 Violence civile
1958 - 1958 Irak 2 000 Violence civile: renversement de la monarchie par un groupe de militaires. Pour en savoir plus!
1958 - 1958 Jordanie non-disponible Violence civile
1957 - 1957 Oman non-disponible Violence civile
1957 - 1961 Indonésie 30 000 Violence civile (dissidence militaire)
1956 - 1956 Viêt Nam non-disponible Violences civiles
1956 - 1957 Haïti non-disponible Violence civile
1955 - 1955 Costa Rica 1 000 Violence civile
1955 - 1955 Taiwan 5 000 Violences civiles
1955 - 1955 Argentine 3 000 Violence civile. Rébellion des forces armées contre le gouvernement de Peron Pour en savoir plus!
1954 - 1954 Guatemala 1 000 Violence civile: renversement du gouvernement de gauche de Jacobo Arbenz Guzman par des factions dissidentes de l'armée qui s'étaient réfugiées au Honduras et qui recevaient l'appui du gouvernement américain. Pour en savoir plus!
1953 - 1953 Indonésie 1 000 Violence civile (Islamistes: Darul Islam)
1953 - 1954 Viêt Nam 15 000 Repression dirigées contre les propriétaires fonciers
1952 - 1952 Égypte 1 000 Violence civile (Coup d'État de Nasser). Renversement de la monarchie par un groupe de militaires de gauche. Pour en savoir plus!
1952 - 1952 Bolivie 2 000 Violence civile. Forces révolutionnaires contre le gouvernement. Pour en savoir plus!
1951 - 1951 Thaïlande non-disponible Violence civile
1950 - 1951 Chine 1 500 000 Répression dirigées contre les propriétaires fonciers
1950 - 1952 Philippines 10 000 Violence civile (Huks -guérilla communiste)
1950 - 1960 Malaisie 15 000 Violences civiles liées à la guerre d'indépendance.
1948 - 1948 Colombie 1 000 Violence civile (Conservateurs contre le gouvernement)
1948 - 1948 Costa Rica 2 000 Violence civile (Union nationale). A la suite d’élections frauduleuses (1948), une révolte populaire a lieu; elle est menée par José Figueres Ferrer, leader du Parti Libéral National, de gauche.
1948 - 1948 Corée du Sud 1 000 Violences civiles (Armée)
1948 - 1948 Inde 200 Violence civile (Hyderabad)
1947 - 1947 Paraguay 1 000 Violence civile
1947 - 1948 Yémen 5 000 Violence civile entre les républicains et les royalistes: (assasinat de l'Imam Yahya )
1946 - 1946 Bolivie 1 000 Violence civile

Source: (*) Nombre approximatif de morts provoqués directement par le conflit.

There is no general agreement among scholars as to what constitutes a major episode of armed conflict. The most common divisions in the relevant research center on episode type or interstate-intrastate conflict distinctions, further complicating the comprehensive compilation of episodes of all types. The reference numbers list those from the following sixteen sources that include the episode with the purview of their particular classification scheme.

a. Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1991. World Military and Social Expenditures 1991. 14th ed. Washington, DC: World Priorities. (Also, consulted 16th ed., 1996, see "m" below.) Criteria: "...armed conflict involving one or more governments and causing the death of 1,000 or more people per year." (Sivard 1991, 25)

b. Brogan, Patrick. 1989. World Conflicts: Why and Where They are Happening. London: Bloomsbury. Criteria: "...includes all the major wars and insurrections since 1945, but leaves out many lesser insurrections and riots, many of which resulted in the deaths of thousands of people.

c. Small, Melvin, and J. David Singer. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills: Sage. Criteria: Interstate wars during which the total "battle-connected fatalities among military personnel" for all participants was at least 1000 per year; extra-systemic wars during which battle deaths exceeded the 1000 per year threshold for the system-member; civil wars which resulted in at least 1000 deaths per year including both civilian and military personnel. (Small and Singer 1982, 71)

d. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). 1968-1993. World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook. Annual series. Stockholm: SIPRI. Criteria: Major armed conflicts, defined as "prolonged combat between the military forces of two or more governments or of one government and at least one organized armed group, involving the use of weapons and incurring battle-related deaths of at least 1000 persons." (SIPRI 1992, 417)

e. Harff, Barbara, and Ted Robert Gurr. 1988. "Toward Empirical Theory of Genocides and Politicides: Identification and Measurement of Cases since 1945." International Studies Quarterly 32: 359-371. Criteria: Cases of "massive state repression" which are "sustained episodes in which the state or its agents impose on a communal or political group 'conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.'"

f. Kaye, G. D., D. A. Grant, and E. J. Emond. 1985. Major Armed Conflict: A Compendium of Interstate and Intrastate Conflict, 1720 to 1985. Ottawa, Canada: Department of National Defense. Criteria: "In a general sense, the conflict modes involve two or more groups (nations and/or actors) in which the use of force was a significant factor in the event. This includes both internal and international events. At least one nation is involved in every conflict listed."

g. Tillema, Herbert K. 1991. International Armed Conflict Since 1945: A Bibliographic Handbook of Wars and Military Interventions. Boulder: Westview Press. Criteria: "An international armed conflict is operationally defined to include all directly related foreign overt military interventions undertaken by one or more states within one or more foreign political territories....Onset of the first directly related foreign overt military intervention and cessation of the last intervention are taken as the beginning and the end of an international armed conflict." (Tillema 1991, 12 fn.8)

h. Singer, J. David, and Melvin Small. 1993. The Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816-1992. Computer file. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. Criteria: See source reference number 3 above, except that the criteria for "Extra-systemic" wars has been changed from "1000 annual average battle deaths per year" to "1000 battle deaths total for all participating interstate system members and the troop commitment criterion."

i. List of International and Civil Wars Excluded (1980-1988). Personal correspondence with Ricardo R. Rodriguiz, Data Management Assistant, Correlates of War Project, dated May 25, 1993. Criteria: Recognized in the literature as an episode of "armed conflict" but fail to meet minimum criteria for definition as one of the three COW categories; see source reference "c" above.

j. Gurr, Ted Robert. 1994. "Peoples Against States: Ethnopolitical Conflict and the Changing World System." International Studies Quarterly 38: 347-377. Criteria: Serious ethnopolitical conflicts involving armed violence and resulting in large numbers of casualties and dislocated populations.

k. Daniel C. Esty, Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Pamela T. Surko, Alan N. Unger. 1998. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation. "Problem Set" available from the State Failure Task Force Web site: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail. Criteria: The State Failure Problem Set includes four types of events: Ethnic Wars, Revolutionary Wars, Geno/Politicides, and Abrupt or Disruptive Regime Transitions. Only the first three types of events meet the general criteria to be considered a major armed conflict for cross-referencing here. Ethnic Wars are "episodes of violent conflict between governments and national, ethnic, religious, or other communal minorities (ethnic challengers) in which the challengers seek major changes in their status." Revolutionary Wars are "episodes of violent conflict between governments and politically organized groups (political challengers) that seek to overthrow the central government, to replace its leaders, or to seize power in one region." Geno/politicide is "the promotion, execution, and/or implied consent of sustained policies by governing elites or their agents-or, in the case of civil war, either of the contending authorities-that result in the deaths of a substantial portion of a communal and/or politicized communal group." Episodes of Geno/Politicide must have lasted six months or more to be included. Revolutionary and Ethnic Wars are included if they pass a minimum threshold wherein each party must mobilize 1000 or more people (armed agents, demonstrators, troops) and average 100 or more fatalities per year during the episode.

l. Wallensteen, Peter, and Margareta Sollenberg. 2005. "Armed Conflict and Regional Conflict Complexes."Annual report in Journal of Peace Research. Criteria: Wallensteen and Sollenberg include three types of events in their study: minor armed conflict, intermediate armed conflict, and war. Only the latter two types meet the general criteria for inclusion here. Intermediate armed conflicts have "more than 1,000 battle-related deaths recorded during the course of the conflict, but fewer than 1,000 in any given year." Wars have "more than 1,000 battle-related deaths during any given year." (Wallensteen and Sollenberg 1998, 621)

m. Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1996. World Military and Social Expenditures 1996. 16th ed. Washington, DC: World Priorities. Criteria: "...armed conflict involving one or more governments and causing the death of 1,000 or more people per year." (Updates "a" above.)

n. Correlates of War. 1994. Militarized Interstate Disputes. Computer File. ICPSR version. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. Criteria: Fatality category 5 and 6 cases were chosen for cross-referencing; category 5 includes disputes where fatalities range from 501 to 999 (1 case) and category 6 includes disputes with over 999 fatalities (24 cases).

o. Regan, Patrick M. 1996. "Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts." Journal of Conflict Resolution 40: 336-359. Criteria: Regan defines episodes of intrastate conflict as "armed, sustained combat between groups within state boundaries in which there are at least 200 fatalities." (Regan 1996, 338) Appendix lists only the 85 conflicts that had at least one intervention (of 138 total), only three of the conflicts listed fall below the standard 1000 fatalities threshold.

p. Marshall, Monty G. 1998-2006. "Current Status of the World's Major Episodes of Political Violence." Bi-monthly reports to US Government's Political Instability Task Force, most recent report January 27, 2006.

This comprehensive compilation is a substantial revision and update of earlier works published in the following sources (each are available on the CSP Web site as electronic documents)

Monty G. Marshall. 1999. Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Monty G. Marshall. 2002. "Measuring the Societal Impact of War," chapter 4 in Fen Osler Hampson and David M. Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System. A project of the International Peace Academy. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publisher.

Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr. 2005. Peace and Conflict 2005: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Democracy, and Self-Determination Movements. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. Bi-annual report series; also published in 2001 and 2003.

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