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19 juillet 2018

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Estimer les conflits



Guerres civiles

Guerres ethniques

Guerres entre États

Guerres d'indépendance

Violences civiles

Violences ethniques

Violences entre États

Zone en construction - Tableau construit sur la base des données de Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr (Directeur: Minorities at Risk program at the University of Maryland at College Park).

PériodePaysNombre*Précisions

2000 - 2005 Côte d'Ivoire 3 000 Guerre civile
1998 - 1999 Guinée-Bissau 6 000 Guerre civile
1997 - 1999 Congo 10 000 Guerre civile
1996 - 2005 Népal 8 000 Guerre civile (Front Uni Populaire -UPF) . Orientation communiste - maoiste.
1996 - 2005 Congo (rep. dem.) 1 500 000 Guerre civile (renversement de Mobutu par les troupes de Kabila, et les suites)
1992 - 1998 Tadjikistan 25 000 Guerre civile
1991 - 1991 Croatie 10 000 Guerre civile (Indépendance de la Croatie) Pour en savoir plus!
1991 - 1993 Géorgie 1 000 Guerre civile
1991 - 1994 Djibouti 1 000 Rébellion (FRUD)
1991 - 2001 Sierra Leone 25 000 Guerre civile et guerre ethnique
1991 - 2004 Algérie 60 000 Guerre civiles (militants islamistes)
1990 - 1990 Chine 2 000 Repression de dissidents
1990 - 1997 Liberia 40 000 Guerre civile
1990 - 1997 Cambodge 5 000 Guerre civile (résistance des Khmers rouges)
1988 - 2005 Somalie 100 000 Guerre civile
1987 - 1990 Sri Lanka 25 000 Guerre civile (JVP-Sinhalese extremistes)
1986 - 1987 Yémen 10 000 Guerre civile
1985 - 1985 Liberia 5 000 Répression des dissidents
1981 - 1982 Syrie 25 000 Répression de dissidents musulmans (Frères musulmans). Certains estimations: 10 000 morts.
1981 - 1986 Ouganda 100 000 Repression des dissidents
1981 - 1990 Nicaragua 30 000 Guerre civile entre le gouvernement sandiniste de gauche et les Contras, rebelles de droite soutenus par le gouvernement américain. Pour en savoir plus!
1981 - 1992 Mozambique 500 000 Guerre civile (RENAMO Resistência Nacional Moçambicana - Résistance nationale mozambicaine)
1979 - 1992 Salvador 75 000 Guerre civile entre Front Farabundo Marti de libération nationale (FMLN) (gauche) et le gouvernement.
1978 - 1979 Nicaragua 40 000 Guerre civile entre le gouvernement autoritaire d'Anastasio Somoza et le le Front sandiniste de libération (FSL) de gauche. Pour en savoir plus!
1978 - 1993 Iran 50 000 Guerre civile menée par les islamistes d'abord pour le renversement du régime autoritaire du Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi puis pour l'établissement d'un régime théocratique. Pour en savoir plus!
1978 - 2002 Afghanistan Russie 1 000 000 Guerre civile, intervention de l'Union soviétique, Talibans. Selon certaines estimations, presque deux millions de morts. Pour en savoir plus!
1977 - 1983 Congo (rep. dem.) 10 000 Répression des dissidents
1976 - 1980 Argentine 20 000 Répression de dissidents par l'armée et des forces para-militaires: assasinats, kidnappings, certaines sources avancent 30 000 disparus. Terme anglais: disappearances. Pour en savoir plus!
1976 - 1992 Indonésie 180 000 Guerre coloniale (Timor oriental) Pour en savoir plus!
1975 - 1978 Cambodge 1 500 000 Gouvernement de Pol Pot, communiste, Khmers rouges. Répression massive contre les dissidents. Pour en savoir plus!
1975 - 1989 Mauritanie Maroc 15 000 Guerre entre les deux États et guerre civile.
1975 - 2002 Angola 1 000 000 Guerre civile: Union nationale pour l'indépendance totale de l'Angola -UNITA- située à gauche.
1974 - 1976 Chili 20 000 Répression de dissidents par des forces militaires et para-militaires.
1972 - 1997 Philippines 40 000 Guerre civile (guérilla communiste)
1970 - 1975 Cambodge 150 000 Guerre civile
1966 - 1966 Nigeria 20 000 Guerre civile: rébellion Ibo.
1966 - 1975 Chine 500 000 Révolution culturelle. Mouvement lancé par Mao Tse-tung- (gauche communiste). Les estimations sont très différentes selon les catégories retenues. Généralement: 500 000 militaires, 1 600 000 civils. Quand aux morts des camps de travail: 6 000 000. Pour en savoir plus!
1965 - 1966 Indonésie 500 000 Répression des communistes et plus globalement des Chinois, assimilés à des communistes. Pour en savoir plus!
1965 - 1994 Tchad 75 000 Guerre civile
1962 - 1970 Yémen 40 000 Guerre civile (proclamation de la République arabe du Yémen; victoire des républicains)
1960 - 1965 Congo (rep. dem.) 100 000 Guerre civile, Conflit du Katanga (région qui tente de se séparer)
1960 - 1973 Laos 25 000 Guerre civile
1959 - 1959 Chine 50 000 Répression par le gouvernement chinois (communiste) des contre-révolutionnaires.
1958 - 1975 Viêt Nam États-Unis 2 000 000 Guerre du Vietnam. Guerre civile.
1957 - 1959 Cuba 5 000 Guerre civile: Castro renverse le gouvernement de Batista. Pour en savoir plus!
1950 - 1953 Corée du Nord Corée du Sud 1 500 000 Guerre de Corée
1949 - 1962 Colombie 250 000 La Violencia, terme pour désigner la guerre civile opposants les libéraux et les conservateurs
1947 - 1947 Chine 20 000 Répression des dissidents de l'île de Taiwan par le gouvernement nationaliste de Chang Kai-Shek.
1946 - 1950 Chine 1 000 000 Guerre civile en Chine. Installation du gouvernement communiste de Mao Tse-tung. Pour en savoir plus!
1945 - 1949 Grèce 150 000 Guerre civile en Grèce

Source: (*) Nombre approximatif de morts provoqués directement par le conflit.

There is no general agreement among scholars as to what constitutes a major episode of armed conflict. The most common divisions in the relevant research center on episode type or interstate-intrastate conflict distinctions, further complicating the comprehensive compilation of episodes of all types. The reference numbers list those from the following sixteen sources that include the episode with the purview of their particular classification scheme.

a. Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1991. World Military and Social Expenditures 1991. 14th ed. Washington, DC: World Priorities. (Also, consulted 16th ed., 1996, see "m" below.) Criteria: "...armed conflict involving one or more governments and causing the death of 1,000 or more people per year." (Sivard 1991, 25)

b. Brogan, Patrick. 1989. World Conflicts: Why and Where They are Happening. London: Bloomsbury. Criteria: "...includes all the major wars and insurrections since 1945, but leaves out many lesser insurrections and riots, many of which resulted in the deaths of thousands of people.

c. Small, Melvin, and J. David Singer. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills: Sage. Criteria: Interstate wars during which the total "battle-connected fatalities among military personnel" for all participants was at least 1000 per year; extra-systemic wars during which battle deaths exceeded the 1000 per year threshold for the system-member; civil wars which resulted in at least 1000 deaths per year including both civilian and military personnel. (Small and Singer 1982, 71)

d. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). 1968-1993. World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook. Annual series. Stockholm: SIPRI. Criteria: Major armed conflicts, defined as "prolonged combat between the military forces of two or more governments or of one government and at least one organized armed group, involving the use of weapons and incurring battle-related deaths of at least 1000 persons." (SIPRI 1992, 417)

e. Harff, Barbara, and Ted Robert Gurr. 1988. "Toward Empirical Theory of Genocides and Politicides: Identification and Measurement of Cases since 1945." International Studies Quarterly 32: 359-371. Criteria: Cases of "massive state repression" which are "sustained episodes in which the state or its agents impose on a communal or political group 'conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.'"

f. Kaye, G. D., D. A. Grant, and E. J. Emond. 1985. Major Armed Conflict: A Compendium of Interstate and Intrastate Conflict, 1720 to 1985. Ottawa, Canada: Department of National Defense. Criteria: "In a general sense, the conflict modes involve two or more groups (nations and/or actors) in which the use of force was a significant factor in the event. This includes both internal and international events. At least one nation is involved in every conflict listed."

g. Tillema, Herbert K. 1991. International Armed Conflict Since 1945: A Bibliographic Handbook of Wars and Military Interventions. Boulder: Westview Press. Criteria: "An international armed conflict is operationally defined to include all directly related foreign overt military interventions undertaken by one or more states within one or more foreign political territories....Onset of the first directly related foreign overt military intervention and cessation of the last intervention are taken as the beginning and the end of an international armed conflict." (Tillema 1991, 12 fn.8)

h. Singer, J. David, and Melvin Small. 1993. The Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816-1992. Computer file. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. Criteria: See source reference number 3 above, except that the criteria for "Extra-systemic" wars has been changed from "1000 annual average battle deaths per year" to "1000 battle deaths total for all participating interstate system members and the troop commitment criterion."

i. List of International and Civil Wars Excluded (1980-1988). Personal correspondence with Ricardo R. Rodriguiz, Data Management Assistant, Correlates of War Project, dated May 25, 1993. Criteria: Recognized in the literature as an episode of "armed conflict" but fail to meet minimum criteria for definition as one of the three COW categories; see source reference "c" above.

j. Gurr, Ted Robert. 1994. "Peoples Against States: Ethnopolitical Conflict and the Changing World System." International Studies Quarterly 38: 347-377. Criteria: Serious ethnopolitical conflicts involving armed violence and resulting in large numbers of casualties and dislocated populations.

k. Daniel C. Esty, Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Pamela T. Surko, Alan N. Unger. 1998. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation. "Problem Set" available from the State Failure Task Force Web site: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail. Criteria: The State Failure Problem Set includes four types of events: Ethnic Wars, Revolutionary Wars, Geno/Politicides, and Abrupt or Disruptive Regime Transitions. Only the first three types of events meet the general criteria to be considered a major armed conflict for cross-referencing here. Ethnic Wars are "episodes of violent conflict between governments and national, ethnic, religious, or other communal minorities (ethnic challengers) in which the challengers seek major changes in their status." Revolutionary Wars are "episodes of violent conflict between governments and politically organized groups (political challengers) that seek to overthrow the central government, to replace its leaders, or to seize power in one region." Geno/politicide is "the promotion, execution, and/or implied consent of sustained policies by governing elites or their agents-or, in the case of civil war, either of the contending authorities-that result in the deaths of a substantial portion of a communal and/or politicized communal group." Episodes of Geno/Politicide must have lasted six months or more to be included. Revolutionary and Ethnic Wars are included if they pass a minimum threshold wherein each party must mobilize 1000 or more people (armed agents, demonstrators, troops) and average 100 or more fatalities per year during the episode.

l. Wallensteen, Peter, and Margareta Sollenberg. 2005. "Armed Conflict and Regional Conflict Complexes."Annual report in Journal of Peace Research. Criteria: Wallensteen and Sollenberg include three types of events in their study: minor armed conflict, intermediate armed conflict, and war. Only the latter two types meet the general criteria for inclusion here. Intermediate armed conflicts have "more than 1,000 battle-related deaths recorded during the course of the conflict, but fewer than 1,000 in any given year." Wars have "more than 1,000 battle-related deaths during any given year." (Wallensteen and Sollenberg 1998, 621)

m. Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1996. World Military and Social Expenditures 1996. 16th ed. Washington, DC: World Priorities. Criteria: "...armed conflict involving one or more governments and causing the death of 1,000 or more people per year." (Updates "a" above.)

n. Correlates of War. 1994. Militarized Interstate Disputes. Computer File. ICPSR version. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. Criteria: Fatality category 5 and 6 cases were chosen for cross-referencing; category 5 includes disputes where fatalities range from 501 to 999 (1 case) and category 6 includes disputes with over 999 fatalities (24 cases).

o. Regan, Patrick M. 1996. "Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts." Journal of Conflict Resolution 40: 336-359. Criteria: Regan defines episodes of intrastate conflict as "armed, sustained combat between groups within state boundaries in which there are at least 200 fatalities." (Regan 1996, 338) Appendix lists only the 85 conflicts that had at least one intervention (of 138 total), only three of the conflicts listed fall below the standard 1000 fatalities threshold.

p. Marshall, Monty G. 1998-2006. "Current Status of the World's Major Episodes of Political Violence." Bi-monthly reports to US Government's Political Instability Task Force, most recent report January 27, 2006.

This comprehensive compilation is a substantial revision and update of earlier works published in the following sources (each are available on the CSP Web site as electronic documents)

Monty G. Marshall. 1999. Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Monty G. Marshall. 2002. "Measuring the Societal Impact of War," chapter 4 in Fen Osler Hampson and David M. Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System. A project of the International Peace Academy. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publisher.

Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr. 2005. Peace and Conflict 2005: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Democracy, and Self-Determination Movements. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. Bi-annual report series; also published in 2001 and 2003.

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