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21 janvier 2018

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Estimer les conflits

Guerres civiles

Guerres ethniques

Guerres entre États

Guerres d'indépendance

Violences civiles

Violences ethniques

Violences entre États

Zone en construction - Tableau construit sur la base des données de Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr (Directeur: Minorities at Risk program at the University of Maryland at College Park).


2001 - 2001 Rwanda 2 500 Violences ethniques (Tutsis/ Hutus)
1999 - 2000 Éthiopie 2 000 Guerre ethnique: séparatistes de l’ethnie oromo (une des «nationalités» les plus représentées en Éthiopie).
1999 - 2005 Russie 30 000 Guerre civile et ethnique (Tchétchénie)
1998 - 1999 Serbie 15 000 Guerre ethnique (Kosovo)
1998 - 1998 Géorgie 1 000 Guerre civile (Abkhazie)
1996 - 1998 Irak 2 000 Guerre ethnique (contre les Kurdes)
1994 - 1994 Rwanda 500 000 Violences ethniques (Tutsis/ Hutus) . Les estimations varient. Souvent:un million de morts. Pour en savoir plus!
1994 - 1994 Yémen 3 000 Guerre ethnique et guerre civile: actions des séparatistes du Sud pour retrouver l'indépendance. Réaction du gouvernement central.
1994 - 1996 Russie 40 000 Guerre civile (Tchétchénie) Pour en savoir plus!
1994 - 1998 Rwanda 15 000 Violences ethniques (Tutsis/ Hutus)
1993 - 2005 Burundi 100 000 Violences ethniques ( Tutsis contre Hutus)
1992 - 1995 Bosnie-Herzégovine 200 000 Ethnic war (Serbs, Croats, Muslims)
1991 - 1993 Géorgie 3 000 Ethnic war (Abkhazians-Ossetians)
1991 - 1995 Croatie 40 000 Ethnic war (Serbs)
1990 - 1994 Rwanda 15 000 Violences ethniques (Tutsis/ Hutus)
1990 - 2005 Inde 35 000 Guerre ethnique (Cashemire)
1988 - 1997 Azerbaïdjan 15 000 Guerre ethnique (Nagorno-Karabakh)
1988 - 1997 Papouasie-Nouvelle-G. 1 000 Guerre ethnique (Bougainville)
1984 - 1999 Turquie 40 000 Violences ethniques (Kurdes)
1983 - 1993 Inde 25 000 Guerre ethnique (Sikhs)
1983 - 1996 Afrique du Sud 20 000 Guerre civile et guerre ethnique
1983 - 2002 Sri Lanka 70 000 Guerre ethnique (Tamouls)
1983 - 2002 Soudan 1 000 000 Guerre ethnique
1979 - 1985 Iran 40 000 Guerre ethnique menée par le gouvernement contre l'opposition kurde en particulier. Les évaluations varient: de 15 000 morts à 40 000 morts.
1977 - 1979 Éthiopie 10 000 Violences ethniques (région de l'Ogaden).
1975 - 1991 Liban 100 000 Guerre ethnique et guerre civile. Intervention de la Syrie et d'Israël. Pour en savoir plus!
1975 - 1992 Bangladesh 25 000 Guerre ethnique (Chittagong Hills)
1974 - 1991 Éthiopie 750 000 Guerres ethniques
1973 - 1977 Pakistan 12 000 Guerre ethnique (province du Baloutchistan). Vocation séparatiste.
1972 - 1973 Burundi 100 000 Repression des Hutus
1972 - 2005 Philippines 50 000 Guerre ethnique (Moros)
1971 - 1971 Bangladesh 1 000 000 Guerre civile. Indépendance du Bangladesh. Intervention indienne. Pour en savoir plus!
1971 - 1978 Ouganda 250 000 Guerre ethnique (régime d'Idi Amin Dada) Pour en savoir plus!
1966 - 1970 Nigeria 200 000 Guerre ethniques (Biafra). Après la sécession de 1967, la région plonge dans la guerre civile qui se termine par la défaite des séparatistes biafrais. Les estimations varient sur le nombre de morts: 200 000 à un million. Pour en savoir plus!
1966 - 1996 Guatemala 150 000 Guerre civile entre le gouvernement militaire de droite et l'Union révolutionnaire nationale guatémaltèque (UNRG). Aussi répression contre des populations indigènes. Certaines estimations: 217 500 morts. Pour en savoir plus!
1965 - 2005 Israël 20 000 Guerre ethnique
1963 - 1993 Indonésie 15 000 Guerre ethnique
1961 - 1993 Irak 150 000 Guerre ethnique (contre les Kurdes)
1959 - 1966 Rwanda 75 000 Parti du mouvement de l'émancipation Hutu (PARMEHUTU) renverse la monarchie Tutsi; repression des Tutsis.
1956 - 1967 Chine 100 000 Guerre ethnique: attaques du gouvernement chinois contre le Tibet.
1956 - 1972 Soudan 500 000 Guerre civile et guerre ethnique
1952 - 2005 Inde 25 000 Guerre ethnique (tribus du Nord-Est; séparatistes Assam )
1948 - 1956 Malaisie 12 500 Répression des Chinois par l'armée malaisienne
1948 - 2005 Myanmar 100 000 Guerre ethnique, résistance séparatiste dans des zones du pays
1946 - 1948 Inde Pakistan 1 000 000 Création de l'Inde et du Pakistan. Partition selon la religion: Pakistan (musulman) et Inde (hindoue/sikhs). Affrontements importants. Pour en savoir plus!

Source: (*) Nombre approximatif de morts provoqués directement par le conflit.

There is no general agreement among scholars as to what constitutes a major episode of armed conflict. The most common divisions in the relevant research center on episode type or interstate-intrastate conflict distinctions, further complicating the comprehensive compilation of episodes of all types. The reference numbers list those from the following sixteen sources that include the episode with the purview of their particular classification scheme.

a. Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1991. World Military and Social Expenditures 1991. 14th ed. Washington, DC: World Priorities. (Also, consulted 16th ed., 1996, see "m" below.) Criteria: "...armed conflict involving one or more governments and causing the death of 1,000 or more people per year." (Sivard 1991, 25)

b. Brogan, Patrick. 1989. World Conflicts: Why and Where They are Happening. London: Bloomsbury. Criteria: "...includes all the major wars and insurrections since 1945, but leaves out many lesser insurrections and riots, many of which resulted in the deaths of thousands of people.

c. Small, Melvin, and J. David Singer. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills: Sage. Criteria: Interstate wars during which the total "battle-connected fatalities among military personnel" for all participants was at least 1000 per year; extra-systemic wars during which battle deaths exceeded the 1000 per year threshold for the system-member; civil wars which resulted in at least 1000 deaths per year including both civilian and military personnel. (Small and Singer 1982, 71)

d. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). 1968-1993. World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook. Annual series. Stockholm: SIPRI. Criteria: Major armed conflicts, defined as "prolonged combat between the military forces of two or more governments or of one government and at least one organized armed group, involving the use of weapons and incurring battle-related deaths of at least 1000 persons." (SIPRI 1992, 417)

e. Harff, Barbara, and Ted Robert Gurr. 1988. "Toward Empirical Theory of Genocides and Politicides: Identification and Measurement of Cases since 1945." International Studies Quarterly 32: 359-371. Criteria: Cases of "massive state repression" which are "sustained episodes in which the state or its agents impose on a communal or political group 'conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.'"

f. Kaye, G. D., D. A. Grant, and E. J. Emond. 1985. Major Armed Conflict: A Compendium of Interstate and Intrastate Conflict, 1720 to 1985. Ottawa, Canada: Department of National Defense. Criteria: "In a general sense, the conflict modes involve two or more groups (nations and/or actors) in which the use of force was a significant factor in the event. This includes both internal and international events. At least one nation is involved in every conflict listed."

g. Tillema, Herbert K. 1991. International Armed Conflict Since 1945: A Bibliographic Handbook of Wars and Military Interventions. Boulder: Westview Press. Criteria: "An international armed conflict is operationally defined to include all directly related foreign overt military interventions undertaken by one or more states within one or more foreign political territories....Onset of the first directly related foreign overt military intervention and cessation of the last intervention are taken as the beginning and the end of an international armed conflict." (Tillema 1991, 12 fn.8)

h. Singer, J. David, and Melvin Small. 1993. The Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816-1992. Computer file. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. Criteria: See source reference number 3 above, except that the criteria for "Extra-systemic" wars has been changed from "1000 annual average battle deaths per year" to "1000 battle deaths total for all participating interstate system members and the troop commitment criterion."

i. List of International and Civil Wars Excluded (1980-1988). Personal correspondence with Ricardo R. Rodriguiz, Data Management Assistant, Correlates of War Project, dated May 25, 1993. Criteria: Recognized in the literature as an episode of "armed conflict" but fail to meet minimum criteria for definition as one of the three COW categories; see source reference "c" above.

j. Gurr, Ted Robert. 1994. "Peoples Against States: Ethnopolitical Conflict and the Changing World System." International Studies Quarterly 38: 347-377. Criteria: Serious ethnopolitical conflicts involving armed violence and resulting in large numbers of casualties and dislocated populations.

k. Daniel C. Esty, Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Pamela T. Surko, Alan N. Unger. 1998. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation. "Problem Set" available from the State Failure Task Force Web site: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail. Criteria: The State Failure Problem Set includes four types of events: Ethnic Wars, Revolutionary Wars, Geno/Politicides, and Abrupt or Disruptive Regime Transitions. Only the first three types of events meet the general criteria to be considered a major armed conflict for cross-referencing here. Ethnic Wars are "episodes of violent conflict between governments and national, ethnic, religious, or other communal minorities (ethnic challengers) in which the challengers seek major changes in their status." Revolutionary Wars are "episodes of violent conflict between governments and politically organized groups (political challengers) that seek to overthrow the central government, to replace its leaders, or to seize power in one region." Geno/politicide is "the promotion, execution, and/or implied consent of sustained policies by governing elites or their agents-or, in the case of civil war, either of the contending authorities-that result in the deaths of a substantial portion of a communal and/or politicized communal group." Episodes of Geno/Politicide must have lasted six months or more to be included. Revolutionary and Ethnic Wars are included if they pass a minimum threshold wherein each party must mobilize 1000 or more people (armed agents, demonstrators, troops) and average 100 or more fatalities per year during the episode.

l. Wallensteen, Peter, and Margareta Sollenberg. 2005. "Armed Conflict and Regional Conflict Complexes."Annual report in Journal of Peace Research. Criteria: Wallensteen and Sollenberg include three types of events in their study: minor armed conflict, intermediate armed conflict, and war. Only the latter two types meet the general criteria for inclusion here. Intermediate armed conflicts have "more than 1,000 battle-related deaths recorded during the course of the conflict, but fewer than 1,000 in any given year." Wars have "more than 1,000 battle-related deaths during any given year." (Wallensteen and Sollenberg 1998, 621)

m. Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1996. World Military and Social Expenditures 1996. 16th ed. Washington, DC: World Priorities. Criteria: "...armed conflict involving one or more governments and causing the death of 1,000 or more people per year." (Updates "a" above.)

n. Correlates of War. 1994. Militarized Interstate Disputes. Computer File. ICPSR version. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. Criteria: Fatality category 5 and 6 cases were chosen for cross-referencing; category 5 includes disputes where fatalities range from 501 to 999 (1 case) and category 6 includes disputes with over 999 fatalities (24 cases).

o. Regan, Patrick M. 1996. "Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts." Journal of Conflict Resolution 40: 336-359. Criteria: Regan defines episodes of intrastate conflict as "armed, sustained combat between groups within state boundaries in which there are at least 200 fatalities." (Regan 1996, 338) Appendix lists only the 85 conflicts that had at least one intervention (of 138 total), only three of the conflicts listed fall below the standard 1000 fatalities threshold.

p. Marshall, Monty G. 1998-2006. "Current Status of the World's Major Episodes of Political Violence." Bi-monthly reports to US Government's Political Instability Task Force, most recent report January 27, 2006.

This comprehensive compilation is a substantial revision and update of earlier works published in the following sources (each are available on the CSP Web site as electronic documents)

Monty G. Marshall. 1999. Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Monty G. Marshall. 2002. "Measuring the Societal Impact of War," chapter 4 in Fen Osler Hampson and David M. Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System. A project of the International Peace Academy. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publisher.

Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr. 2005. Peace and Conflict 2005: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Democracy, and Self-Determination Movements. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. Bi-annual report series; also published in 2001 and 2003.

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