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23 octobre 2018

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Estimer les conflits



Guerres civiles

Guerres ethniques

Guerres entre États

Guerres d'indépendance

Violences civiles

Violences ethniques

Violences entre États

Zone en construction - Tableau construit sur la base des données de Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr (Directeur: Minorities at Risk program at the University of Maryland at College Park).

PériodePaysNombre*Précisions

2003 - 2005 Irak États-Unis Royaume-Uni 40 000 Offensive américaine et britannique en Irak pour le renversement du régime de Saddam Hussein. Occupation. Pour en savoir plus!
2001 - 2005 Afghanistan États-Unis Royaume-Uni Canada 15 000 Renversement des Talibans, associés à la nébuleuse terroriste al Qaeda. Participation de plusieurs pays de l'OTAN. Estimations très variables.
1998 - 2000 Érythrée Éthiopie 100 000 Violence entre les deux États Pour en savoir plus!
1990 - 1991 Irak Koweït États-Unis 100 000 Guerre du Golfe. Invasion irakienne du Koweit. Intervention américaine. Pour en savoir plus!
1990 - 1994 Arménie Azerbaïdjan 10 000 Guerre entre les deux États (région du Nagorno-Karabakh)
1985 - 1987 Chine Viêt Nam 4 000 Guerre entre des États
1982 - 1982 Argentine Royaume-Uni 1 000 Guerre des Malouines/Falkland Pour en savoir plus!
1982 - 1990 Israël Liban 50 000 Guerre entre Israël et des bases palestiniennes établies au Liban. Pour en savoir plus!
1980 - 1988 Iran Irak 500 000 Guerre entre les deux États. Selon certaines estimations: 1 million de morts. Pour en savoir plus!
1979 - 1979 Chine Viêt Nam 30 000 Guerre entre des États
1978 - 1979 Tanzanie Ouganda 3 000 Guerre entre les deux États (renversement d' Idi Amin Dada)
1978 - 1989 Cambodge Viêt Nam 65 000 Guerre entre les deux États: renversement du gouvernement des Khmers rouges.
1975 - 1979 Cambodge Viêt Nam 10 000 Guerre entre des États
1973 - 1973 Égypte Israël Syrie 16 000 Guerre du Yom Kippour menée par l'Égypte et la Syrie contre Israël. Pour en savoir plus!
1971 - 1971 Inde Pakistan 11 000 Guerre entre les deux États
1969 - 1969 Salvador Honduras 5 000 Rivalité entre le Honduras et le Salvador. Connue comme la Guerre du football qui n'a été que le déclencheur. Connue aussi comme la Guerre de Cent heures parce qu'elle dura quatre jours.
1967 - 1970 Égypte Israël Jordanie Syrie 75 000 Guerre des Six jours. Victoire israélienne contre l'Égypte. Pour en savoir plus!
1965 - 1965 Inde Pakistan 20 000 Deuxième guerre du Cashemire.
1956 - 1956 Égypte Israël Royaume-Uni 3 000 Guerre de Suez. Intervention franco-britannique pour empêcher la nationalisation du canal de Suez par le gouvernement égyptien de Nasser. Interventions américaines et soviétiques pour un cessez-le-feu. Pour en savoir plus!
1956 - 1956 Hongrie Russie 20 000 Guerre entre des États Pour en savoir plus!
1950 - 1951 Chine 2 000 Invasion du Tibet
1948 - 1949 Égypte Jordanie Liban Syrie 10 000 Guerre entre Israël, la Palestine. Intervention directe ou indirecte de plusieurs pays voisins. Pour en savoir plus!

Source: (*) Nombre approximatif de morts provoqués directement par le conflit.

There is no general agreement among scholars as to what constitutes a major episode of armed conflict. The most common divisions in the relevant research center on episode type or interstate-intrastate conflict distinctions, further complicating the comprehensive compilation of episodes of all types. The reference numbers list those from the following sixteen sources that include the episode with the purview of their particular classification scheme.

a. Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1991. World Military and Social Expenditures 1991. 14th ed. Washington, DC: World Priorities. (Also, consulted 16th ed., 1996, see "m" below.) Criteria: "...armed conflict involving one or more governments and causing the death of 1,000 or more people per year." (Sivard 1991, 25)

b. Brogan, Patrick. 1989. World Conflicts: Why and Where They are Happening. London: Bloomsbury. Criteria: "...includes all the major wars and insurrections since 1945, but leaves out many lesser insurrections and riots, many of which resulted in the deaths of thousands of people.

c. Small, Melvin, and J. David Singer. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills: Sage. Criteria: Interstate wars during which the total "battle-connected fatalities among military personnel" for all participants was at least 1000 per year; extra-systemic wars during which battle deaths exceeded the 1000 per year threshold for the system-member; civil wars which resulted in at least 1000 deaths per year including both civilian and military personnel. (Small and Singer 1982, 71)

d. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). 1968-1993. World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook. Annual series. Stockholm: SIPRI. Criteria: Major armed conflicts, defined as "prolonged combat between the military forces of two or more governments or of one government and at least one organized armed group, involving the use of weapons and incurring battle-related deaths of at least 1000 persons." (SIPRI 1992, 417)

e. Harff, Barbara, and Ted Robert Gurr. 1988. "Toward Empirical Theory of Genocides and Politicides: Identification and Measurement of Cases since 1945." International Studies Quarterly 32: 359-371. Criteria: Cases of "massive state repression" which are "sustained episodes in which the state or its agents impose on a communal or political group 'conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.'"

f. Kaye, G. D., D. A. Grant, and E. J. Emond. 1985. Major Armed Conflict: A Compendium of Interstate and Intrastate Conflict, 1720 to 1985. Ottawa, Canada: Department of National Defense. Criteria: "In a general sense, the conflict modes involve two or more groups (nations and/or actors) in which the use of force was a significant factor in the event. This includes both internal and international events. At least one nation is involved in every conflict listed."

g. Tillema, Herbert K. 1991. International Armed Conflict Since 1945: A Bibliographic Handbook of Wars and Military Interventions. Boulder: Westview Press. Criteria: "An international armed conflict is operationally defined to include all directly related foreign overt military interventions undertaken by one or more states within one or more foreign political territories....Onset of the first directly related foreign overt military intervention and cessation of the last intervention are taken as the beginning and the end of an international armed conflict." (Tillema 1991, 12 fn.8)

h. Singer, J. David, and Melvin Small. 1993. The Correlates of War Project: International and Civil War Data, 1816-1992. Computer file. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. Criteria: See source reference number 3 above, except that the criteria for "Extra-systemic" wars has been changed from "1000 annual average battle deaths per year" to "1000 battle deaths total for all participating interstate system members and the troop commitment criterion."

i. List of International and Civil Wars Excluded (1980-1988). Personal correspondence with Ricardo R. Rodriguiz, Data Management Assistant, Correlates of War Project, dated May 25, 1993. Criteria: Recognized in the literature as an episode of "armed conflict" but fail to meet minimum criteria for definition as one of the three COW categories; see source reference "c" above.

j. Gurr, Ted Robert. 1994. "Peoples Against States: Ethnopolitical Conflict and the Changing World System." International Studies Quarterly 38: 347-377. Criteria: Serious ethnopolitical conflicts involving armed violence and resulting in large numbers of casualties and dislocated populations.

k. Daniel C. Esty, Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Pamela T. Surko, Alan N. Unger. 1998. State Failure Task Force Report: Phase II Findings. McLean, VA: Science Applications International Corporation. "Problem Set" available from the State Failure Task Force Web site: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail. Criteria: The State Failure Problem Set includes four types of events: Ethnic Wars, Revolutionary Wars, Geno/Politicides, and Abrupt or Disruptive Regime Transitions. Only the first three types of events meet the general criteria to be considered a major armed conflict for cross-referencing here. Ethnic Wars are "episodes of violent conflict between governments and national, ethnic, religious, or other communal minorities (ethnic challengers) in which the challengers seek major changes in their status." Revolutionary Wars are "episodes of violent conflict between governments and politically organized groups (political challengers) that seek to overthrow the central government, to replace its leaders, or to seize power in one region." Geno/politicide is "the promotion, execution, and/or implied consent of sustained policies by governing elites or their agents-or, in the case of civil war, either of the contending authorities-that result in the deaths of a substantial portion of a communal and/or politicized communal group." Episodes of Geno/Politicide must have lasted six months or more to be included. Revolutionary and Ethnic Wars are included if they pass a minimum threshold wherein each party must mobilize 1000 or more people (armed agents, demonstrators, troops) and average 100 or more fatalities per year during the episode.

l. Wallensteen, Peter, and Margareta Sollenberg. 2005. "Armed Conflict and Regional Conflict Complexes."Annual report in Journal of Peace Research. Criteria: Wallensteen and Sollenberg include three types of events in their study: minor armed conflict, intermediate armed conflict, and war. Only the latter two types meet the general criteria for inclusion here. Intermediate armed conflicts have "more than 1,000 battle-related deaths recorded during the course of the conflict, but fewer than 1,000 in any given year." Wars have "more than 1,000 battle-related deaths during any given year." (Wallensteen and Sollenberg 1998, 621)

m. Sivard, Ruth Leger. 1996. World Military and Social Expenditures 1996. 16th ed. Washington, DC: World Priorities. Criteria: "...armed conflict involving one or more governments and causing the death of 1,000 or more people per year." (Updates "a" above.)

n. Correlates of War. 1994. Militarized Interstate Disputes. Computer File. ICPSR version. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan. Criteria: Fatality category 5 and 6 cases were chosen for cross-referencing; category 5 includes disputes where fatalities range from 501 to 999 (1 case) and category 6 includes disputes with over 999 fatalities (24 cases).

o. Regan, Patrick M. 1996. "Conditions of Successful Third-Party Intervention in Intrastate Conflicts." Journal of Conflict Resolution 40: 336-359. Criteria: Regan defines episodes of intrastate conflict as "armed, sustained combat between groups within state boundaries in which there are at least 200 fatalities." (Regan 1996, 338) Appendix lists only the 85 conflicts that had at least one intervention (of 138 total), only three of the conflicts listed fall below the standard 1000 fatalities threshold.

p. Marshall, Monty G. 1998-2006. "Current Status of the World's Major Episodes of Political Violence." Bi-monthly reports to US Government's Political Instability Task Force, most recent report January 27, 2006.

This comprehensive compilation is a substantial revision and update of earlier works published in the following sources (each are available on the CSP Web site as electronic documents)

Monty G. Marshall. 1999. Third World War: System, Process, and Conflict Dynamics. Boulder, CO: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.

Monty G. Marshall. 2002. "Measuring the Societal Impact of War," chapter 4 in Fen Osler Hampson and David M. Malone, eds., From Reaction to Conflict Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System. A project of the International Peace Academy. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publisher.

Monty G. Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr. 2005. Peace and Conflict 2005: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Democracy, and Self-Determination Movements. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. Bi-annual report series; also published in 2001 and 2003.

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